Advanced MSGARCH Volatility Forecast with - Statistics

£250-750 GBP

Closed

Posted

about 2 months ago

£250-750 GBP

Paid on delivery

We are seeking an experienced data scientist or quantitative analyst with expertise in econometrics and financial modeling to conduct a comprehensive analysis of cryptocurrency market volatility. The analysis will focus on the log returns of four major cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), and Ripple (XRP). The objective is to employ a Markov-Switching GARCH (MSGARCH) model to investigate how the volatility of these cryptocurrencies responds to major market events under two distinct volatility regimes. Data Description: The analysis will be based on daily log returns for the following cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC) Ethereum (ETH) Litecoin (LTC) Ripple (XRP) The log returns data is already prepared and will be provided for analysis. Specific file paths to the datasets will be shared. Modeling Requirements: MSGARCH Model Configuration: The analysis requires the implementation of a MSGARCH model to capture the dynamic volatility of each cryptocurrency. The model must accommodate two distinct regimes: High-Volatility Regime (Regime 1): Characterized by periods surrounding significant market events expected to induce heightened market volatility. Examples include the Coincheck Hack (January 2018), the 2018 Cryptocurrency Market Crash, Black Thursday (March 2020), the 2021 Chinese Cryptocurrency Mining Ban, the Collapse of TerraUSD and LUNA (May 2022), and the FTX Bankruptcy (November 2022). Low-Volatility Regime (Regime 2): Represents periods of relative market stability, with lower volatility not significantly influenced by immediate external shocks. The model should estimate the probabilities of switching between these regimes and assess the impact of the specified events on the volatility of each cryptocurrency. Simulation and Forecasting: Conduct simulations using the fitted MSGARCH models to forecast future volatility patterns under both regimes. Provide insights into potential future volatility responses to similar types of events. Analysis and Reporting: Analyze the model outcomes to identify which regime each cryptocurrency is most likely to be in during the specified events. Prepare a detailed report summarizing the findings, including an interpretation of the regime probabilities over time and their correlation with the major events. Include visualizations (e.g., plots of volatility, regime probabilities) to support the analysis. Technical Requirements: Proficiency in R programming, specifically with experience in using the MSGARCH package or equivalent tools for volatility modeling. Strong background in econometrics, financial modeling, and time-series analysis. Ability to interpret and communicate complex model outcomes in a clear and concise manner. Deliverables: R scripts or Jupyter notebooks containing all the code used for the analysis. A final report including: Methodology and model specifications. Detailed analysis of the findings. Visualizations and interpretations of the MSGARCH model results. Recommendations for future research or analysis.

Statistical Analysis

Statistics

R Programming Language

Data Mining

SPSS Statistics

Project ID: 37953845

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@LiveExperts

Hi there, I have read your project description and i'm an expert in SPSS/Statistical analysis and machine learning therefore i can do this project for you perfectly.I still have a few questions. please leave a message on my chat so we can discuss the budget and deadline of the project. Thanks. ... .

£750 GBP in 3 days

5.0

(25 reviews)

7.0

@schoudhary1553

As an experienced data scientist and R programmer with a deep understanding of statistical analysis and time series forecasting, I'm confident that I'm the ideal candidate for your cryptocurrency volatility analysis project. Over the past 7 years, I have honed my skills in financial modeling and econometrics, making me well-equipped to take on a complex task like implementing Markov-Switching GARCH (MSGARCH) models. Moreover, I have substantial experience in using the MSGARCH package specifically, and in conducting simulations for cryptocurrency volatility predictions. My expertise extends to programming R scripts and developing comprehensive reports, both of which are pivotal tasks for this project's successful completion. In tandem with my technical skills, my business-oriented approach ensures that I interpret and communicate outcomes in a clear manner that will add value to your decision-making process. Finally, I guarantee not only speed and quality but also ongoing support in case any issues arise - forming long-term relationships with clients is my priority. Excited to embark on this project with you!

£500 GBP in 7 days

4.9

(102 reviews)

7.0

@AITSoft

Hello there, How are you doing? Just saw your project posted. I have good experience with R Programming Language, Statistical Analysis, Data Mining, Statistics and SPSS Statistics. I read the brief details and I felt I could help you with it. Lets start the chat and discuss it in detail. Please check my porfolio: My Portfolio: https://www.freelancer.com/u/AITSoft Availability timings: 8am-8pm EST Regards, Shamshad

£750 GBP in 27 days

5.0

(1 review)

5.7

@ExpertSoul

Hello, I've complete MS Statistics and Analytics, with a strong concept of Statistics by using Statistical Software: SPSS - SAS - Excel - Minitab Mathematica - R Programming. High-level skills in Multiple linear Regression - Control Chart - Hypothesis - Chi-Square Data analysis task Deliver within deadline with high-Quality content at affordable price. Looking forward to your response, Best Regards: Aqeel Ahmed

£450 GBP in 2 days

5.0

(13 reviews)

5.1

@hayteekeys

As a well-rounded data scientist and quantitative analyst, adept in econometrics, financial modeling, and time-series analysis. I am well-suited to conduct your comprehensive volatility analysis of crypto markets. My Msc. in Data Science has equipped me with strong knowledge and practical skills in using R programming to implement complex models, exactly like what your project demands. In regard to the Markov-Switching GARCH (MSGARCH) model, I have extensive experience using this for analyzing and forecasting volatility of various financial assets. I am confident that my proficiency in R programming language, specifically with using the MSGARCH package will enable me to meet your requirements satisfactorily. The ability to comprehend and effectively communicate complex model outcomes is another strength I bring to the table. I understand that as a client you require clear reporting; thus, turning technical analysis into simple insights that contribute positively to your business decisions will be among my top priorities. In addition to meeting your immediate project needs, I strive for value addition over time. Therefore, my final report will not only include detailed methodologies employed and in-depth analysis of the findings but also recommend future research areas or potential improvements for a more informed decision-making process for similar projects moving forward.

£320 GBP in 2 days

4.9

(19 reviews)

5.2

@josephvictory

Hi, I can assist you in this project task on coding by developing and building a financial modelling algorithm specifically for econometrics that will accurately predict the financial data outcome of log returns for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), and Ripple (XRP) by applying Markov-Switching GARCH (MSGARCH) model on the historic dataset. I will accurately analyse all 4 cryptocurrency by applying statistical analysis based on current financial market price movement and volatility. I will reproduce the simulation forecast that explains the probabilities of switching between these regimes and assess, including the specific events and scenarios that trigged the volatility of each cryptocurrency. I am proficient in building financial trading predictive models for regression using statistical analysis methods with machine learning algorithms. I am well experienced in analysing financial dataset such as the cryptocurrencies and providing practical theoretical insight on the data with accurate validation to be applied on real world scenario. I’ll work on this task in a professional and timely manner and provide you the best accuracy prediction result required. I am proficient in R programming, Financial analysis, Statistical analysis, MSGARCH package, Data analysis, Predictive modelling, SPSS, R programming and, Machine learning Algorithms. I have the required skillset to perform this task. I’m available for this task. Awaiting your response. Regards, Victory

£280 GBP in 4 days

4.9

(12 reviews)

4.8

@UmairAnwar93

Hi Sam P. After reading in detail the requirements of your project and concluding that they match my areas of knowledge and skills, I would like to introduce myself. My name is Umair Anwar and I am the lead engineer for Statistics, SPSS Statistics, Data Mining, R Programming Language and Statistical Analysis. I have worked for over 08 years in development/Engineering and have successfully done multiple jobs on this and other Freelance platforms. It will be a pleasure to work together to make your project a reality. Please feel free to contact me. I´m looking forward to working with you. I really appreciate your time and remain attentive to any request or question. Greetings Regards Umair Anwar Awan

£700 GBP in 20 days

5.0

(2 reviews)

4.4

@usmanbashir12100

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£500 GBP in 7 days

5.0

(2 reviews)

4.1

@rashidamjad

Hi there, I'm thrilled to apply for your Advanced MSGARCH Volatility Forecast with - Statistics project. With 4-5 years of experience in Statistical Analysis, Statistics, Data Mining, SPSS Statistics and R Programming Language, I'm confident in my ability to bring valuable insights and expertise to your initiative. Please note that the initial bid is an estimate, and the final quote will be provided after a thorough discussion of the project requirements or upon reviewing any detailed documentation you can share. Could you please share any available detailed documentation? I'm also open to further discussions to explore specific aspects of the project. Feel free to check out my profile, showcasing my portfolio, past jobs, and client reviews. It reflects the quality and professionalism I bring to every project. My goal is to provide a competitive budget without compromising on quality. Thanks for considering my proposal. I'm eager to collaborate and contribute to your project's success. Let me know if you need any more information. Best regards, Rashid Amjad

£700 GBP in 15 days

5.0

(1 review)

4.0

@AwaisChaudhry

Hey Good evening , Just finished reading the brief details . I see you have been looking for someone who has experience with these tech stacks SPSS Statistics, Statistical Analysis, R Programming Language, Data Mining and Statistics. I will request you to review my profile, skills, projects and customer feedbacks to confirm that I will be good fit for this job. I would like you to start the chat so we can discuss the project in detail and we will see how it goes. Questions: 1. These are all the requirements? If not, Please share more detailed requirements. 2. Do you currently have anything done for the job or it has to be done from scratch? 3. What is the timeline to get this done? Why Choose Me? 1. I have done more than 250 major projects only on freelancer.com. 2. I have not received a single bad feedback since last 5-6 years. 3. You will find 5 star feedback on last 100+ major projects which shows my clients are happy with my work. Portfolio: https://www.freelancer.com/u/AwaisChaudhry Timings: 9am - 9pm Eastern Time (I work as a full time freelancer) Thanks and regards, Awais

£750 GBP in 12 days

5.0

(2 reviews)

4.2

@merinsinha

R expert. I can do it. As 9+ years experiences in these field. I can give good quality work. I have read the guidelines of your work.I believe that i can provide you the best quality works you are anticipating from this platform give me a chance to show you the best i can do at your service.

£500 GBP in 7 days

4.4

(28 reviews)

5.0

@TheDataAnalysts

Greetings! I am a seasoned data scientist adept in econometrics and financial modeling, ready to tackle your cryptocurrency market volatility analysis. With expertise in R programming and MSGARCH modeling, I will diligently analyze daily log returns of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple. My experience ensures accurate simulations, insightful forecasting, and comprehensive reporting, meeting your project's technical and analytical demands. Let's navigate the intricacies of cryptocurrency volatility together and deliver actionable insights. Best regards, Lewis M.

£250 GBP in 2 days

5.0

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4.1

@janita24

Hi There Sam P., Good evening! My name is Jane a skilled data analyst with skills including R Programming Language, Statistical Analysis, SPSS Statistics, Statistics and Data Mining. I have over 5 years in tutoring data analysis and statistics. Having completed similar project, I am confident in my ability to deliver high-quality results for this project. I am eager to discuss further details and see how I can contribute to your team. I am happy to offer a free consultation and a 10% discount for first-time clients. Please contact me to discuss more regarding this project. Best Jane

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5.0

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3.4

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£250 GBP in 2 days

4.9

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3.5

@saim2105

With a deep understanding of the inherent volatility of financial markets and years of experience in time-series analysis, econometrics, and statistical modeling, I am confident in my ability to tackle your Advanced MSGARCH Volatility Forecast project. I have specialized in financial markets' dynamism and have had extensive practical experience analyzing cryptocurrency market data. This enables me to apply an insightful perspective when building predictive models like the MSGARCH model you need for this project. In previous projects, I've often been faced with developing complex models that can effectively capture changes between distinct regimes, such as the high-volatility periods surrounding significant market events versus the low-volatility periods. By leveraging powerful tools like R-programming language and the MSGARCH package or their equivalents, I have a proven track record of constructing robust models for dynamic regime-switching GARCHs. My communication skills are another strength that sets me apart. Being able to interpret complex modeling outcomes and present them clearly and concisely is essential to deliver valuable insights. In summary, my comprehensive approach to statistical analysis, in conjunction with my expertise in advanced econometric modeling using R, renders me an ideal fit for mastering this project's complexities and needs.

£250 GBP in 1 day

5.0

(3 reviews)

2.8

@Muhammadzeesha59

As an experienced data scientist and quantitative analyst, I possess the exact skill-set needed for your project. My proficiency in R programming language aligns perfectly with your project's requirement for using the MSGARCH package. Moreover, my extensive background in econometrics and financial modeling will enable me to develop a robust model that captures the dynamic forecasting, analyze and report time-series analysis, including work on Bitcoin Thursday in March 2020. My solutions are known for their high-quality, thorough analysis and precise interpretation even of complex model outcomes. I am committed to turning over not just the end deliverable but also a clear interpretation of the regime probabilities over time and how they correlate to significant events or shocks. My objective is to provide you not just with findings and insights into future volatility patterns or response dynamics but also actionable recommendations for future research or analysis—ultimately contributing to a better understanding of cryptocurrency market behavior. With me on board, you can trust that the project will be handled with utmost reliability, efficiency, and delivered within your given budgetary constraints

£500 GBP in 7 days

5.0

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2.7

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£250 GBP in 1 day

5.0

(3 reviews)

2.4

@GameOfWords

As a dynamic developer with a proven track record and a passion for innovation, I'm confident that my knowledge and skills make me an exceptional fit for your cryptocurrency volatility analysis project. With extensive expertise in R programming language and SPSS Statistics, I have a strong foundation in econometrics, financial modeling, and time-series analysis, all of which are critical to precisely employing Markov-Switching GARCH (MSGARCH) models. I fully grasp the requirements of fitting MSGARCH models for both high-volatility (Regime 1) and low-volatility (Regime 2) environments, as well as interpreting probabilities of regime-switches under the influence of major market events. My proficiency in utilizing MSGARCH package or equivalent tools would enable me to provide robust simulation models based on historical data. Furthermore, my ability to communicate complex model outcomes effectively is key in translating the findings into actionable insights. I'm committed to not just providing you with the code and report but rather delivering thorough analysis packed with visualizations that clarify the MSGARCH model results while shedding light on each cryptocurrency's behavior during significant events. Let's collaborate on this unique endeavor; I'm ready to lend my statistical expertise to help you decipher future volatility patterns for these cryptocurrencies.

£500 GBP in 7 days

5.0

(1 review)

1.6

@IcsfIT789

Hi, THANKS FOR CHOOSING FREELANCER PLATFORM. I'm an expert in analysis in the R program, with over eight years of experience. I specialize in all financial reports using R language/ statistical reports and data analysis in the R program. I will provide 100% manual analysis with the R Code file. https://www.freelancer.com/u/IcsfIT789 - Best Regards, @ IcsfIT

£300 GBP in 4 days

5.0

(1 review)

1.3

@fivezeroinfo

Dear Hiring Manager, I am a highly skilled data scientist with expertise in econometrics and financial modeling, particularly in utilizing the Markov-Switching GARCH (MSGARCH) model for volatility analysis. I have extensive experience in analyzing cryptocurrency market data and am proficient in R programming for statistical analysis. I am confident in my ability to effectively model the volatility of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple under different market regimes and provide insightful forecasting based on major market events. I am eager to discuss your project further and demonstrate how my skills and experience align with your requirements. Thank you for considering my proposal. Best regards,

£250 GBP in 7 days